"dataType": "link", "dataType": "link", } "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/locations.html", Creditors are likely to become increasingly unwilling to lend money to economies that are unable to reform sufficiently to bring total production costs below the oil price in the foreseeable future. "showIcon": true, "children": [ "showIcon": false "children": [ "class": "nr-navigation__link ", } "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", }, { "index": "6", "dataType": "link", }, "path": "/en/global/corporate/who-we-are/our-history/post-war.html", "index": "0", But history has shown that economic reform and diversification can be a long and challenging process. "dataType": "link", "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/results-and-reporting/trading-conditions-update/refining-marker-margin.html", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", } "title": "Sir John Sawers", "showIcon": false "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", Join Our Community. "showIcon": true, The timing of peak oil demand, and the slope of its decline, will affect carbon emissions, corporate strategies and the finances of oil-producing nations. "title": "bp Retail", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "level": "1", "title": "bp week 2020 - day two", "dataType": "link", "dataType": "link", ] }, ] "index": "2", ] "title": "ampm", }, "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/locations/egypt.html", }, }, "showIcon": false "index": "0", "level": "1", } "index": "3", As the US experience shows, these price effects are powerful and, at least for a period, can offset the underlying forces causing demand growth to slow, potentially leading to multiple peaks in demand5. "dataType": "link", ] }, This implies a huge and ever widening gap between oil supply and the demand profiles. "title": "Comment and analysis", "path": "/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/reports-and-publications.html", "dataType": "section", }, } }, "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", "title": "#InThisTogether", } }, }, "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "level": "1", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "showIcon": false "showIcon": false }, "dataType": "link", Peak Oil: BP, Eni, Shell lead Big Oil’s search for new business model. "showIcon": true, "index": "0", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/locations/canada.html", "showIcon": false "dataType": "link", } "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/search-and-apply/hints-and-tips.html", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "dataType": "link", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/contact-us.html", "path": "/en/global/corporate/who-we-are/board-and-executive-management/leadership-team/david-eyton.html", They continued: “More importantly, there is little reason to believe that once it does peak, that oil demand will fall sharply. "showIcon": false "index": "3", "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/information-for-shareholders/shares-in-issue-and-share-buybacks.html", }, Under BP’s business-as-usual scenario, peak demand doesn’t mean … This year’s edition once again cuts the outlook for fossil fuels, as the charts below show, with the most dramatic revisions having been applied to coal use. "index": "3", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "showIcon": false "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "title": "Brendan Nelson", "showIcon": false }, "index": "1", { "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/upstream-major-projects/major-projects-2019/constellation.html", "title": "Business support group", "title": "LGBT+", { "children": [ 12, 2020, 01:30 PM } "title": "Apprenticeships", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "index": "30", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "dataType": "link", "title": "Intern programmes", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/career-areas/sales.html", "path": "/en/global/corporate/sustainability/safety.html", "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", ] "dataType": "link", "dataType": "section", "dataType": "link", "level": "1", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/career-areas-for-students/trading-and-shipping.html", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/locations/trinidad-and-tobago/contact-us-trinidad-and-tobago.html", "path": "/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/covid-19-bp-response/make-your-mask.html", "index": "1", "dataType": "link", }, }, { "dataType": "link", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", { "path": "/en/global/corporate/who-we-are/board-and-executive-management/leadership-team/emma-delaney.html", { "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", "path": "/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/covid-19-bp-response/inthistogether-our-response-to-covid-19/our-people-step-up.html", } "path": "/en/global/corporate/who-we-are/our-brands/aral.html", "dataType": "link", "children": [ "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", { { "title": "Ambition launch event", "index": "1", }, ] },{ "index": "5", "index": "2", { The world has already passed “peak oil” demand, according to Carbon Brief analysis of { "level": "1", } "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "title": "Data and how we report", But simply that these social costs will have an important bearing on where oil prices stabilise in the long run and so need to be considered as well as the physical costs of production. }, { "title": "Greater equity", "title": "Finance", "index": "3", }, "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "dataType": "link", "dataType": "link", { "showIcon": false "showIcon": true, { }, "title": "Constellation, US - Gulf of Mexico", "index": "1", "index": "1", "index": "6", ] "showIcon": false "title": "Oil", } Small changes in assumptions about the myriad factors determining oil demand, such as GDP growth or the rate of improvement in vehicle efficiency, can generate very different paths. { "showIcon": false { "showIcon": false "dataType": "section", "showIcon": false "index": "0", "index": "13", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "dataType": "link", "showIcon": false "showIcon": false { We use cookies to collect and analyse information on our site's performance and to enable the site to function. }, "class": "nr-navigation__link ", If a low-cost producer wishes to adopt a “higher volume, lower price” strategy they will need to increase their production capacity. }, "title": "Iraq", "showIcon": false "dataType": "section", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "path": "/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/introduction/notes-and-definitions.html", Only a few months later, as the coronavirus pandemic hit in early 2020, this demand collapsed to such an extent that the value of the price of oil dropped to a negative dollar value per barrel. { "showIcon": false "showIcon": false { } "path": "/en/global/corporate/sustainability/data-and-how-we-report.html", "index": "0", { "title": "Global insights", "showIcon": false "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "showIcon": false "path": "/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/demand-by-fuel/oil.html", "title": "Taas-Yuryakh Expansion, Russia", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/locations/spain/intern-programmes.html", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/locations/united-states/military-careers.html", "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/information-for-shareholders/dividends/dividend-payment-options.html", { { "dataType": "link", "index": "2", "dataType": "section", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/locations/united-kingdom/trainee-technicians.html", }, "dataType": "link", "title": "Carbon pricing and emission-heavy crudes", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "index": "0", "children": [ Rather, the significance of peak oil is that it signals a shift in paradigm – from an age of (perceived) scarcity to an age of abundance – and with it is likely to herald a shift to a more competitive market environment. "title": "Intern programmes", "dataType": "link", }, "title": "Key business addresses", Peak oil demand signals a break from a past dominated by concerns about adequacy of supply. "index": "0", "title": "Human rights", "showIcon": false "class": "nr-navigation__link ", }, "dataType": "link", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", }, One key implication of this paradigm shift is its impact on long-run price trends. "showIcon": false "dataType": "link", As such, the average level of oil prices over the next few decades is likely to depend more on developments in the social cost of production across the major oil producing economies than on the physical cost of extraction. "dataType": "link", "path": "/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-contacts.html", "title": "Sustainable livelihoods", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/locations/canada/graduate-programs.html", "dataType": "link", "title": "Project management", "path": "/en/global/corporate/sustainability/our-approach-to-sustainability/policy-and-advocacy.html", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "index": "2", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "title": "Shipping cadets", "title": "Aral", "index": "6", "index": "0", ] "dataType": "link", { "showIcon": false "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", "title": "Investors", "index": "4", "title": "Shipping cadets", "showIcon": false "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/career-areas/business-support-group.html", "title": "Coal", "path": "/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/demand-by-fuel/power-generation.html", "title": "Oil", Under almost any scenario, the world is likely to require significant amounts of investment in new oil production for many years to come. "dataType": "link", Globale Rohöl-Import-Export-Bilanz seit 2005 stagnierend. "showIcon": false Indeed, successive editions had raised the outlook for oil, shown in blue lines in the chart below. }, "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "index": "3", "showIcon": false }, "title": "Reinventing bp", "showIcon": false "index": "9", "dataType": "link", { } }, "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", "path": "/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/year-in-review.html", Man könnte über die Naivität von Wachstumstheoretikern wie Christof Rühl lachen, wenn jene naiven Vorstellungen der Welt nicht weit verbreitet in Management-Kreisen wären und teils immer noch an Universitäten gelehrt werden. "title": "Castrol", "index": "5", "level": "1", "index": "2", } For a country to increase their production from say 3 Mb/d to 6 Mb/d would take tens of billions of dollars and probably several decades. "children": [ "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/results-and-reporting/financial-disclosure-framework/gas-and-low-carbon-energy-financial-disclosures.html", "title": "Regions, cities & solutions", "index": "10", "dataType": "link", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/locations/mexico.html", For countries with a floating exchange rate, the depreciation of their exchange rate as the perceived value of their oil resources is marked down means that some of the required adjustment in living standards will happen quasi-automatically as imported goods and services become more expensive. "index": "23", "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", This trajectory is, says BP, “slower” than in “below 1.5C” scenarios published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, meaning faster declines in fossil fuel use – or reliance on negative emissions – would be needed to stay within this temperature limit. "index": "4", "path": "/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/country-and-regional-insights/european-union-insights.html", "title": "Emma Delaney", "index": "24", },{ "index": "0", { { "dataType": "link", The days of rationing and scarcity premiums must surely be numbered? "dataType": "link", "children": [ "title": "Safety", } "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "title": "Why we fund the arts", "index": "2", "index": "4", "title": "Diversity and inclusion", "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/upstream-major-projects/major-projects-2017/juniper-trinidad-and-tobago.html", "index": "8", "title": "Our purpose", "title": "Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures", "dataType": "link", "index": "19", }, "index": "2", { "path": "/en/global/corporate/who-we-are/board-and-executive-management/leadership-team/murray-auchincloss.html", "dataType": "link", }, "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "dataType": "link", }, "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", ] "index": "2", "dataType": "link", "title": "bp boost", { "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/locations/australia/indigenous-employment-and-partnerships.html", { "showIcon": false "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/results-and-reporting/financial-disclosure-framework/customers-and-products-financial-disclosures.html", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", }, "index": "1", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", }, "title": "CO₂ emissions", "dataType": "link", "dataType": "link", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "dataType": "link", { "title": "Our stories", "title": "Notes and definitions", "dataType": "link", "showIcon": false }, "class": "nr-navigation__link ", { { }, "dataType": "link", }, "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/upstream-major-projects/major-projects-2018/clair-ridge.html", These estimates of the physical cost of production might suggest that, as global markets become increasingly competitive, and low-cost producers gain market share, the (real) oil price will drift inextricably lower. } "index": "1", "index": "3", { "dataType": "link", }, } "index": "21", "dataType": "link", "level": "1", },{ "dataType": "link", Energy giant BP's boss expects to see a sustained impact on crude consumption even after the coronavirus outbreak passes. "title": "Persephone, Australia", This suggests that the oil market is likely to become increasingly competitive over time as producers fight for market share. "children": [ The reason is because owners of large, low-cost resources have until now effectively rationed their supplies of oil: rather than using their competitive advantage to maximize market share, they have preserved their resources for the future. The world has already passed “peak oil” demand, according to Carbon Brief analysis of the latest energy outlook from oil major BP. "dataType": "link", "showIcon": true, { { "children": [ "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/upstream-major-projects/major-projects-2018/western-flank-b.html", }, "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", "index": "4", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", ] { "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", "title": "bp week 2020", "showIcon": false "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "index": "0", "dataType": "section", { "showIcon": false { "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", }, "dataType": "link", },{ BP is less bullish, which is why it is trying to pivot away from oil after a century of exploration. "title": "Engineering", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/career-areas/marketing.html", As argued in Section 2, it seems likely that the world will demand significant amounts of oil for several decades to come. "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/locations/united-states.html", }, "index": "0", "showIcon": false "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", "index": "4", }, "showIcon": false "showIcon": false "index": "1", }, "dataType": "link", "path": "/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/country-and-regional-insights/india-insights.html", { } }, BP foresees in one of its scenarios a dramatic decline in consumption on the horizon and has warned “peak oil” is already upon us. "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/locations/singapore/intern-programmes.html", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/locations/portugal/intern-programmes.html", { "dataType": "link", "showIcon": false "index": "0", ] "index": "0", { "showIcon": false }, "title": "Strengthening bp’s resilience", "index": "3", "dataType": "link", "showIcon": false ] { Indeed, US gasoline consumption reached its highest ever level in 2016 after falling for much of the previous 10 years. "dataType": "link", "title": "Nuclear and hydro power", { { Even so, fiscal break-even prices do provide a rough sense of the order of magnitude of the social costs of production, and suggest that for many of the world’s major oil producers the social cost of production is much greater than the physical cost. }, }, { "dataType": "link", "dataType": "section", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "title": "2017 Upstream major projects", },{ Over the past 35 years or so, for every barrel of oil consumed, two have been added to estimates of Proved Oil Reserves7.In its recent Outlook8, BP estimated that based on known oil resources and using only today’s technology, enough oil could be produced to meet the world’s entire demand for oil out to 2050, more than twice over! "title": "Hungary", "index": "2", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/locations/hungary.html", { "index": "5", "showIcon": false "class": "nr-navigation__link ", { "path": "/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/demand-by-fuel/renewables.html", "showIcon": true, "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/locations/trinidad-and-tobago/intern-programmes.html", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "index": "7", "showIcon": false "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/locations/sweden.html", "title": "Financial disclosure framework", ] "index": "5", { { "title": "Keeping safe at our retail sites", "path": "/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/primary-energy.html", { "path": "/en/global/corporate/who-we-are/board-and-executive-management/the-board/karen-richardson.html", "showIcon": false "class": "nr-navigation__link ", { { "title": "Azerbaijan", "index": "4", "children": [ "index": "1", { "path": "/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/covid-19-bp-response/keeping-safe-at-our-retail-sites.html", "dataType": "link", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "index": "17", { "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/investor-presentations/bp-week-2020/bp-week-2020-day-two.html", { "dataType": "link", "showIcon": true, "title": "life@bp", The recognition that there is an abundance of oil is likely to trigger profound changes in global oil markets and the behaviour of oil producing economies, although the pace at which these changes take hold is a key source of uncertainty. "showIcon": false "index": "11", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", "index": "1", "showIcon": false { "showIcon": false "showIcon": false "dataType": "link", "index": "2", If technologies and pollution rules improve, the dropoff in demand would be even more swift. "class": "nr-navigation__link ", One of the biggest oil companies in the world, BP… "showIcon": false "title": "Refining Marker Margin", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/locations/slovak-republic.html", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "path": "/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/natural-gas.html", For example, in a period of low oil prices, countries highly dependent on oil revenues may cut back on various infrastructure projects and other forms of investment spending causing their fiscal break-even price to fall in the short run. But the downwards revision in this year’s edition is much more dramatic (red lines), showing demand having already peaked in 2019, with large potential downside risks. "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/locations/russia.html", "path": "/en/global/corporate/who-we-are/board-and-executive-management/leadership-team/william-lin.html", "showIcon": false "title": "Trading & shipping", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/locations/united-kingdom/trading-and-shipping-early-careers.html", "dataType": "link", }, } "path": "/en/global/corporate/what-we-do/trading-and-shipping.html", "index": "5", Moreover, rationing supplies in this way provided a clear and transparent way of managing a country’s oil such that it was distributed fairly across future generations. "showIcon": false "dataType": "link", "dataType": "link", "type": "section", "dataType": "link", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", { "title": "Flexible working", { "title": "Learnership programmes", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", },{ "index": "1", "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/upstream-major-projects/major-projects-2018/thunder-horse-northwest-expansion.html", "showIcon": false }, The largest reduction in oil demand is in BP’s “net-zero” scenario, where global CO2 emissions fall by more than 95% in 2050, compared to their 2018 levels. "showIcon": false { "showIcon": false "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", }, "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/locations/brazil/trainee-technicians.html", ] Peak Oil is Back The most interesting predictions happen in the business-as-usual scenario because unfortunately, that is probably where we are heading. "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/investor-presentations/bp-week-2020/bp-week-2020-day-three.html", "showIcon": false "title": "AGM poll results", { At some point, the potential for ensuing socio-economic tensions could start to disrupt oil production and so cause oil prices to rise. "index": "2", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/career-areas/shipping.html", "path": "/en/global/corporate/who-we-are/board-and-executive-management/leadership-team/kerry-dryburgh.html", { "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "dataType": "link", "title": "Oman", "showIcon": false "children": [ "showIcon": false "dataType": "link", "showIcon": true, "showIcon": false "title": "Gordon Birrell", "showIcon": true, "class": "nr-navigation__link ", As such, the pace and extent of that reform process is likely to have an important bearing on oil prices over the next 20 or 30 years. "children": [ "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/regulatory-news-service-and-filings/debt-investors.html", "dataType": "section", "path": "/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/reimagining-energy/performing-while-transforming.html",
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